As the death of El Mencho and the Sinaloa split destabilize the country, the Sheinbaum administration faces mounting pressure from Washington to secure host cities.
The recent neutralization of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the CJNG, comes at a critical time for Mexico’s international standing. As host cities like Mexico City and Guadalajara prepare for the 2026 World Cup, the government is struggling to balance a domestic security crisis with the logistical demands of a global sporting event. The surge in violence in cartel strongholds has raised questions about the safety of international visitors and the integrity of the country’s transport hubs.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly framed the Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, threatening direct military intervention if the flow of fentanyl into the United States is not halted. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum has touted a 50% reduction in fentanyl exports, though producers on the ground in Sinaloa dispute these figures. These “cooks” claim that while they may “lay low” during high-profile government operations, the multi-billion dollar business remains functional due to unrelenting demand from U.S. consumers.
“As long as there are consumers, we’re going to keep doing this. No one is forcing them to start this vice.”
The security challenges are particularly visible at Mexico City’s main airport, where remodeling for the World Cup is underway amidst a heavy military presence. The government’s strategy of “avoiding harm to civilians” is being tested by the fragmentation of the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels, which has led to increased kidnappings and random acts of violence in public spaces. FIFA representatives have begun scrutinizing security and mobility arrangements as the country gears up to co-host the tournament.
The death of “El Mencho” may be a political victory, but it has not ended the systemic issues of the drug trade. The Sheinbaum administration continues to face a dual battle: containing the “narcobloqueos” and violence triggered by the deaths of kingpins, while convincing the international community that Mexico remains a viable and safe destination for the upcoming world-class events. The outcome of the ongoing “Sinaloa War” will likely determine the security landscape for the next several years.
SOURCES: FIFA Security Committee, U.S. DEA, Mexican Ministry of Tourism, Aeroméxico Corporate Reports.
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